Excerpt from Overproduction and Crises
The modern world regards business crises much as the ancient Egyptians regarded the overflowings of the Nile. The phenomenon recurs at intervals; it is of great importance to everyone, and natural causes of it are not in sight. An economist may make a formula that tells, to his own satisfaction, why a convulsion in business takes place about once in a decade; but if the statement is at all complete, it will hardly be understood by the public. It will necessarily be intricate. The phenomenon is complex, and a statement that accurately accounts for it must be so. The most available reasons that can be assigned for business crises are vaguely expressed in single terms, such as "overproduction," "inflation," "speculation," and "liquidation."
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