Excerpt from Chance and Luck: A Discussion of the Laws of Luck, Coincidences, Wagers, Lotteries, and the Fallacies of Gambling; With Notes on Poker and Martingales
The false ideas prevalent among all classes of the community, cultured as well as uncultured, respecting chance and luck, illustrate the truth that common consent (in matters outside the influence of authority) argues almost of necessity error. This, by the way, might be proved by the method of probabilities. For if, in any question of difficulty, the chance that an average mind will miss the correct opinion is but one-half - and this is much underrating the chance of error - the probability that the larger proportion of a community numbering many millions will judge rightly on any such question is but as one in many millions of millions of millions. (Those who are too ready to appeal to the argument from common consent, and on the strength of it sometimes to denounce or even afflict their fellow men, should take this fact - for it is fact, not opinion - very thoughtfully to heart.)
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